Where did the rabid right get the figure of 16,500 new “IRS agents” that (they claim) will be required to enforce the individual mandate in the Affordable Care Act?

They made it up.

Really.  It came from nowhere.  In fact, the IRS will add few or no agents, and perhaps hardly any staff at all.  There’s a really nice dissection of this ludicrous claim over at factcheck.org.  Basically, the number was invented based on a bad estimate, inflated through dubious assumptions, and then just hand-waved into fact.

Just remember, the next time someone quotes to you some scary scary provision of the ACA: There’s a non-negligible chance that they are lying or repeating a lie.

So, against all expectation, the Democratic Party managed to hang together and finally pass the comprehensive health care bill.

As a lifelong Democrat, I am flabbergasted. I was certain they’d find a way to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory and fumble on the proverbial one-yard line. I’m glad to be disappointed, but this long, ugly process has exposed disturbing trends in this nation. It’s still possible that this will be the high-water mark of a great republic.

Though their target is incorrect, the Tea Partiers ironically have a point: the Republic does face a crisis. It’s not driven by phantasmical jackbooted insurance inspectors breaking into homes and dragging Grandma off to mythical death panels. It stems from the unholy matrimony among a slick ideological establishment; sensationalist, irresponsible, and manipulative 24 hour “news” media; and an angry, incoherent, willfully-ignorant populace. Though these people claim to revere the Founders, they in fact stand opposed to the core of Enlightenment democracy that was bequeathed to us: an informed and educated citizenry engaged in reasoned debate — with passion, to be sure, but never abandoning reason and never so cocksure as to assume that opponents must be enemies.

Considering that the Tea Partiers have labeled rule by majority vote “tyranny”, it’s hard to see how anything resembling the United States of America could survive their rage.  Their unifying feature is anger and it will burn everything it can reach.  And the Republican Party stands on the sideline and feeds it, a mixture of cynical arsonist and maniacal six-year-old.

How can a deliberative legislature — how can a functioning democracy — endure when one side has abandoned argument and evidence?  When one side decides that anything their opponents say must be untrue?  If one side locks itself in its own fantasy world and declares invalid any source that might challenge its funhouse-mirror self-reality?

This is the day.
This is the moment that some clever historian — not the first to consider this sweep of time, but rather someone turning over the leaves looking for a more subtle causation — will draw a slash on the timeline of history and write: Here began the fall of the American republic.

The turmoil engendered by the election of a conservative Republican to Ted Kennedy’s seat doesn’t signal some mythical turning of the tide or a repudiation of an agenda. It highlights how very broken is the American system of government, most especially its Senate.  The Republicans have taken Ted Kennedy’s seat and, in so doing, have won themselves — as one pundit put it — a majority of 41 to 59.  The actual numerical shift in power is virtually infinitesimal.   As a different commentator noted, this leaves the Democrats a mere one seat better off than they were a year ago, before they even started tackling health care. Yet the Dems seemed poised, nay, eager to abandon their signature issue on the very cusp of passage. They shouldn’t but that’s fodder for a different post. Here I want to ponder the structural implications.

The Republican victory and, moreso, the Democratic capitulation, will enshrine the supremacy of the fillibuster. Ignoring the clear historical record, the DC elites, the media, and eventually, the public will come to see a 60 seat supermajority as required for the Senate to conduct any business at all. An institution that already moves like molasses will instead freeze up entirely.  Nominally this would paralyze the entire Federal government: Laws unwritten; budgets unpassed; appointed positions (including judgeships) unfilled. But of course the Federal government is too big, too important, and too intricately woven into the daily life of the country to remain paralyzed. Concerns of economy and security, at the least, will demand action that cannot wait. How to resolve this tension?

Government by other means.

If the paralysis of the Senate renders inoperative the traditional mode of American government, then people of all stripes will find advantage in utilizing unconventional methods. If rote application of a rule of order stymies all movement, people will find others they can twist to get done what they feel must get done.

Expect more recess appointments. Expect more recesses to allow for recess appointments. Power will devolve to the bureaucracy even more, which in turn will accelerate the accumulation of power to the Presidency. Since national defense is basically the only area of government enjoying popular respect — and since the military is least encumbered by the trappings of deliberative oversight — you can be sure that the President and the country will turn more and more to the military to “get things done”.

Republics end in two ways: They prove too weak to resist other powers and are conquered from without. Or they prove too weak to govern and are conquered from within. When time-hallowed unwritten understandings are flouted for short-term political gain; when fundamental governing principles are abandoned mid-game for fleeting political advantage; when every loophole is exploited just to gain the upper hand in the TV news cycle; when the habits of communal self-government are allowed to wither … then the final crisis is incipient.

in convenient cartoon form.

by Tom Toles

I got this via Ezra Klein’s fantastic blog, but apparently it’s by Tom Toles.

I haven’t really gotten involved in haranguing my elected representatives before, but the possibility of health care reform is so tantalizingly close — and the apparent drift of the Democratic so-called “leadership” is so grindingly predictable and frustrating — that I’ve felt compelled to contact my representative several times.  Below the fold is the email I’ve sent.

UPDATE: I claim no particular credit, but according to Talking Points Memo, Rep. Holt has in fact come out in support of (what I feel to be) the correct option, passing the Senate bill.  (I am in different as to whether it needs to be done straight up or with amendments via reconciliation.)

To my representative, Rush Holt:

I am writing you to encourage your support in having the House pass the Senate health care reform as is, obviating the need for a new journey through the Senate.  Scott Brown has made clear that he will fillibuster any health care legislation at all.  The choices are the Senate bill or nothing — any other talk is pure fantasy.  Since the current state of health care in the US is unworthy of a great nation — it is in fact intolerable — we must take the opportunity (limited as it may be) offered by the Senate’s passage of a bill.

This is the right thing to do.  Moreover, it is the smart thing do, electorally.  (See http://www.adfinemfidelis.net/mongrel/2010/01/20/what-the-democrats-should-do-now/ for my reasoning on that — or really, read any politically-coherent liberal blog.)

We elected a Democratic majority so that it would -lead- … not so that it would cower in the corner like a dog who’s been beat too much.  It’s time for the party to step up, and the path is clear.

With respect,
-=-Bernard HP Gilroy

To Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi:

Dear Speaker:
The House -must- pass the Senate bill.  The loss of the seat in Massachusetts was disappointing.  The utter abject collapse of the Democratic leadership has been appalling.  It is a delusional fantasy to entertain hopes that the process can be begun again.  Considering the success that the Republicans have had obstructing this bill when they did not have a “superminority”, it is insane to believe they will allow any new bill to move forward.
Health care reform -has- been passed.  The US House can finalize it by adopting the Senate bill.  Admittedly that bill is not all that could be hoped, but it is a damn sight better than nothing — and nothing is the only realistic other alternative.
If the Democrats curl up into a little ball, as they have been distressingly willing to do in the past, then you can kiss the Democratic majority good-bye in November and you can reconcile yourself to finishing out your career in the political wilderness.  Democratic voters elected the party to huge majorities to -get things done-, not to cower in the corner like a dog that’s been kicked.  Betray us now on the signature issue of our times, and you will get whiplash from how fast we abandon you.
Don’t run from the coming fight.  Embrace it.  We Democrats are right — we’re right on the politics, we’re right on the philosophy, we are right on the merits.  Stop being afraid of your own shadow.  Get your caucus into a room, lock the doors, and make them understand:  Failing to pass the Senate bill would be an act of political suicide.  Your voters will abandon you, and with good reason.
Whether or not this bill passes, the Republicans will be using it to attack every Democrat who — already! — has voted for health care reform. Those votes don’t go away and the Republican attack machine is not going to respect the nuances people are trying to spin.  Defending the passage of this bill will be a hard road, but it is infinitely easier than defending the -failure- to pass a bill.
Passing the Senate bill is the right thing for the body politic.  It also offers the only hope of surviving the midterm elections.
With respect,
-=-Bernard HP Gilroy

Pass health care reform.

Pass the frakking Senate bill as is and have the President sign it before the State of the Union. Heck, have him sign it at the State of the Union. Yes, it will enrage the Republicans but in case you haven’t noticed, the Republicans are already the party of incohate rage. Nothing is going to mollify them.

Passing the bill is, counterintuitively, the right thing to do politically. Americans like people of conviction and they despise cowardice. No matter what, the midterm election cycle is going to be about this health care bill. Spending a year defending passing it might sound like a hard road to walk, but it’ll be a Sunday afternoon stroll compared to spending that year defending failing to pass it.

You’re never going to win over the Republicans — they’ve made that clear ever since the inauguration. To survive, the Dems must fire up their solid base and they must convince independents that they’re fit to govern. The best way to do that is to, you know, actually govern.

Will it seem a little hinky to pass the bill without any sort of conference? Is it a little outside the historical process?  Maybe. But no more so than the grotesque notion that the Senate requires a supermajority to conduct any business whatsoever. If the year becomes a fight over process, at least the direct-passage option has the advantage of actually being in the Constitution, whereas the fillibuster is grafted awkwardly over it.  Moreover, the American people have never been moved to vote based on esoteric questions of parlaimentary process. Heck, if direct passage encourages voters to engage with the creeping dysfunction of their government, it would be worth it no matter the ultimate fate of the bill.

The final reason to pass the Senate bill directly is a whole lot simpler than the political calculus: It’s the right thing to do. The Senate bill will get health care to tens of millions of people while simultaneously taking the first steps towards controlling costs. It has its flaws but it’s a long sight better than nothing. And the Republicans have made quite clear, “nothing” is the only alternative they’ll accept.

Pass the bill, sign the bill, own the bill.  There really is no other option.

With the health care bill finally moving forward in both houses of Congress, it’s a good time to take stock, take a breath, and take a look at what’s inside.  Below are some links to useful summaries and commentaries.

• Ezra Klein’s excellent list-of-articles called “Health Reform For Beginners“
• Alec McGillis’ “Your Handy Health Care Cheat Sheet“

More as I come across them.

One of the unsung heros of the health care debate is the Congressional Budget Office, an agency that few really understand and fewer appreciate.  Ezra Klein has a tidbit on them, including a description so pithy I can’t help but steal it:

If the role of the Federal Reserve is to take away the punchbowl just as the party is getting started, the role of the Congressional Budget Office is to walk around the party telling everyone exactly how drunk they’re getting and reminding them that there will be consequences for their actions tomorrow.

I join with Mr. Klein in wishing all the hardworking government types a happy holiday.

Well, I’m closing in on one year in the HMR program and, looking back, I feel pretty satisfied.  I hit my nominal target (weight loss of 150 lbs) a couple of weeks back and have managed to keep going a bit, so it wasn’t a fluke.  My blood pressure today was 110 over 80, which is much better than when I started (when it was something like 180 over 130).

The next step is the transition into maintenance but I’m holding off on that until after the holidays.  It’s going to be hard enough without adding in all the irregularity of the next six weeks.

Since August I’ve been tracking my weight twice a day, when I get up and just before I got to sleep.  The first thing that struck me is how irregular this is.  Although the morning weight has been mostly consistent, the nightly weight has bounced around.  The second thing is, it’s been a good review of linear regression.  I can use the daily tracking to predict the weight I get at HMR, to a pretty good extent.  This means I can keep track and, after a day when I might tick upward, be sure to even out.

Well, it’s been a long time since I’ve written an update, for absolutely no good reason. Things continue to go really well and I’m very happy with my progress. I weigh at 225.6 lbs. now, which is not only 147.4 lbs below my start weight — it’s lower than I’ve been since, most likely, high school! My blood pressure today was 108 over 70, which is fantastic and really in the end justifies the work.
Because we’re closing in on when I should switch to the maintenance part of the program, they remeasured my body stats.

And some pretty graphs to go along with it: